{"id":13441,"date":"2017-09-11T18:00:59","date_gmt":"2017-09-11T17:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.intercom.com\/?p=13441"},"modified":"2024-10-22T19:21:59","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T18:21:59","slug":"the-power-of-payback-periods-in-online-advertising","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.intercom.com\/blog\/the-power-of-payback-periods-in-online-advertising\/","title":{"rendered":"The power of payback periods in online advertising"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"opening_paragraph\">There&#8217;s a common misconception among SaaS marketers and analysts about measuring the success of online advertising campaigns \u2013 and it could be putting a ceiling on their growth.<\/p>\n<p>Most SaaS marketers and analysts measure the success of their campaigns with lifetime value (LTV), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.intercom.com\/blog\/what-is-customer-acquisition-cost\/\">cost of acquiring a customer (CAC)<\/a>, and the margin between the two. It&#8217;s the correct first step to take when analyzing any campaign. After all, LTV margin is the fundamental metric that demonstrates whether a campaign is sustainable.<\/p>\n<p>However, when choosing how to allocate limited capital between two LTV-profitable campaigns, most fail to do any analysis beyond this first step. They simply optimize towards the campaign with the highest margin.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, focusing solely on LTV margin can come at a significant cost to customer growth, revenue and profitability. The key to determining the best campaign, and what most marketers fail to consider, is the rate at which a campaign returns capital, also known as the payback period.<\/p>\n<p>The inspiration for this post came from my experience hiring online marketers and analysts. I use a simplified version of the examples below as an interview screener. The vast majority of candidates flunk it \u2013 with more than 90% (including experienced SaaS marketers and analysts) never initiating a discussion around payback periods.<\/p>\n<p>Using two examples below, I show the price many pay by optimizing simply to LTV margins and the upside possible by understanding payback periods.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-premise-for-each-example\">The premise for each example<\/h2>\n<p>Imagine you\u2019re the head of <a href=\"https:\/\/seo.co\/saas-online-marketing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">online marketing at a SaaS company<\/a> and you are given $1 million to acquire customers. You\u2019re optimizing for growth. You have data on just two successful campaigns, and you can only invest your $1 million in a single campaign.<\/p>\n<p>To make the right decision, you need to follow these three steps:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Understand your unit economics (LTV, CAC, Margin).<\/li>\n<li>Understand your payback period.<\/li>\n<li>Consider how that payback period impacts your ability to reinvest in the business.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Now let\u2019s go through our first example.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"example-1-the-higher-ltv-margin-doesnt-always-win\">Example 1: The higher LTV margin doesn\u2019t always win<\/h2>\n<p>You can choose one of the two campaigns (A and B) below:<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"small\" src=\"https:\/\/intercom.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Payback-Periods_Chart1.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Using our framework, we know the first step is to calculate our unit economics. So we do the following:<\/p>\n<p>Campaign A:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>If you spend $1 million, you\u2019ll get <strong>500,000 clicks<\/strong> [$1,000,000 spend \/ $2 CPC]<\/li>\n<li>If you get 500,000 clicks, you\u2019ll get <strong>500 customers<\/strong> [500,000 clicks x 0.10% CVR]<\/li>\n<li>Every customer has a LTR (lifetime revenue) of<strong> $4,000<\/strong> [$100 ARPU \/ 2.5% monthly churn]<\/li>\n<li>Therefore, your total LTV generated is<strong> $1.6M<\/strong> [$4,000 LTR x 500 customers x 80% GM]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>You spent $1 million to get $1.6 million in LTV, therefore you made <strong>$600,000 profit<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>How does that compare to campaign B?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>If you spend $1 million you\u2019ll get <strong>333,333 visits<\/strong> [$1,000,000 spend \/ $3 CPC]<\/li>\n<li>If you get 333,333 clicks you\u2019ll get <strong>367 customers<\/strong> [333,333 clicks x 0.11% CVR]<\/li>\n<li>Every customer has a LTR of <strong>$5,143<\/strong> [$180 ARPU \/ 3.5% monthly churn]<\/li>\n<li>Therefore, your total LTV generated is <strong>$1.509 million<\/strong> [$5,143 LTR x 367 customers x 80% GM]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>You spent $1 million to get $1.509 million in LTV, therefore you made<strong> $509,000 profit<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Comparing the two options:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"small\" src=\"https:\/\/intercom.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Payback-Periods_Chart2.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>By this math, campaign A is the more profitable of the two options. Most analysis simply stops here and campaign A is the choice. However, stopping there is a critical error. We must also evaluate the payback period.<\/p>\n<p>Campaign A payback period:<\/p>\n<p>If you spend $1 million to acquire 500 customers, you\u2019ve paid <strong>$2,000\/customer<\/strong>. You get $80\/month ($100 ARPU x 80% GM) per customer, so you break even in approximately <strong>25 months<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Campaign B payback period:<\/p>\n<p>If you spend $1 million to acquire 367 customers, you\u2019ve paid <strong>$2,727\/customer<\/strong>. You get $144\/month ($180 ARPU x 80% GM) per customer, so you break even in approximately <strong>19 months<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The payback difference between campaign A and B is only 6 months. That doesn\u2019t sound too bad, right? Anyway, campaign A generates more LTV and more customers, and has lower churn and higher profitability. Let\u2019s go with option A!<\/p>\n<p>Bad choice. Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n<p>As you may have guessed, it comes back to how quickly you\u2019re seeing return on your investment. In campaign B, you\u2019re getting paid back faster. If you take that cash and reinvest it into <a href=\"https:\/\/www.intercom.com\/blog\/customer-acquisition\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">customer acquisition<\/a>, you can actually accelerate growth. You\u2019ll see that option B very quickly overtakes option A.<\/p>\n<p>Assuming you continue to reinvest, here\u2019s what the math looks like over the first 6 months:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"small\" src=\"https:\/\/intercom.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Payback-Periods_Chart3.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"small\" src=\"https:\/\/intercom.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Payback-Periods_Chart4.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And here\u2019s how that plays out over 5 years:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"small\" src=\"https:\/\/intercom.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/51.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Look at the difference you get at the end of 5 years if you choose campaign B. You\u2019ll be able to:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Reinvest 35% more capital back into customer acquisition<\/li>\n<li>Generate 28% more LTV<\/li>\n<li>Increase overall LTV profit 15%<\/li>\n<li>End with a 55% higher ARR<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Our original LTV math told us to pick campaign A \u2013 now you understand why I use this to screen interviewees. By taking the extra step of factoring in payback period, we get a dramatically different outcome, with significant ramifications for the business.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019d like to drive this point home with one more example (with all the math already done).<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"example-2-equal-ltv-margins-can-have-drastically-different-results\">Example 2: Equal LTV margins can have drastically different results<\/h2>\n<p>We\u2019ll use the same concept; imagine you\u2019re a marketer given $1 million to acquire customers and build a business. Except in this example, campaign B is slightly different, with a .20% CVR, $150 ARPA and 5.0% monthly churn.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"small\" src=\"https:\/\/intercom.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Payback-Periods_Chart6.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Following our framework, we calculate and get the following unit economics.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"small\" src=\"https:\/\/intercom.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Payback-Periods_Chart7.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This time, you can see that both options generate the same amount of LTV and LTV margin. Perhaps you should be indifferent, but now you know better. Let\u2019s look at payback rates!<\/p>\n<p>Campaign A pays back in 25 months ($1 million in spend \/ 500 customers = $2k CAC \u2026 $2K CAC \/ $80\/month = 25 months).<\/p>\n<p>Campaign B pays back in 13 months ($1 million in spend \/ 666 customers = $1.5k CAC \u2026 $1.5K CAC \/ $120\/month = 13 months).<\/p>\n<p>All right, so B pays back in roughly half the time: 13 months vs. 25 months. Now let\u2019s reinvest our cash back into customer acquisition and see how the two campaigns fare.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"small\" src=\"https:\/\/intercom.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Payback-Periods_Chart8.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nope, you\u2019re not reading this wrong. That\u2019s the beauty of compounding growth: after 5 years with campaign B, you\u2019ll have nearly a 5x larger business than if you\u2019d implemented campaign A. The unit economics told you they were the same (or even gave the edge slightly to A), but the payback rates tell you they\u2019re dramatically different. Campaign B is the clearly the better option if you want to grow your business.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>When measuring your online advertising campaigns, it&#8217;s not enough to simply look at LTV and cost unit economics. This can lead to critical oversights and missed opportunities. The velocity at which you\u2019re able to get cash back from your customers and reinvest it into the business dictates how quickly you\u2019re able to grow. Keep that in mind as you make tradeoffs on where to invest your hard-earned cash.<\/p>\n<p>One of the easiest ways for companies to drastically change their payback periods is to have customers pay annually and upfront. Now that you understand the power of payback periods, imagine what collecting cash upfront could do to your growth!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s a common misconception among SaaS marketers and analysts about measuring the success of online advertising campaigns \u2013 and it could be putting a ceiling on their growth. Most SaaS marketers and analysts measure the success&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":13440,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"category":[12897],"tags":[67,175,546,149,182],"coauthors":[380],"class_list":["post-13441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-marketing","tag-advertising","tag-business","tag-demand-generation","tag-growth","tag-strategy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The power of payback periods in online advertising - The Intercom Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"When measuring their online advertising, startups should look beyond LTV and cost unit economics, and focus on the rate at which a campaign returns capital.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.intercom.com\/blog\/the-power-of-payback-periods-in-online-advertising\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The power of payback periods in online advertising\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When measuring their online advertising, startups should look beyond LTV and cost unit economics, and focus on the rate at which a campaign returns capital.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.intercom.com\/blog\/the-power-of-payback-periods-in-online-advertising\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Intercom Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/intercominc\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-09-11T17:00:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-22T18:21:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.intercom.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/The_Power_of_Payback_Periods_related.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1248\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"591\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Bobby Pinero\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@bobbypinero\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@intercom\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Bobby Pinero\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.intercom.com\\\/blog\\\/the-power-of-payback-periods-in-online-advertising\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.intercom.com\\\/blog\\\/the-power-of-payback-periods-in-online-advertising\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Bobby Pinero\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.intercom.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a64402c1ccd9c0d8054ae3c56ed2e734\"},\"headline\":\"The power of payback periods in online advertising\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-09-11T17:00:59+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-10-22T18:21:59+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.intercom.com\\\/blog\\\/the-power-of-payback-periods-in-online-advertising\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1161,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.intercom.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.intercom.com\\\/blog\\\/the-power-of-payback-periods-in-online-advertising\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.intercom.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/The_Power_of_Payback_Periods_related.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"advertising\",\"business\",\"demand generation\",\"growth\",\"strategy\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Customer Engagement\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.intercom.com\\\/blog\\\/the-power-of-payback-periods-in-online-advertising\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.intercom.com\\\/blog\\\/the-power-of-payback-periods-in-online-advertising\\\/\",\"name\":\"The power of payback periods in online advertising - 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